Subtropical Storm Ana!

Well, here we are almost a month before the official beginning of the Tropical Storm Season, and we already have a named storm!

The most recent observations have Ana listed as a Tropical Storm based on categorizing criteria, however the Ana is named "Subtropical" due to it's cold core nature. Hurricanes and other large rotating tropical systems (Typhoons, Storms, and Depressions) all have a warm core, meaning that the temperature in the center of the storm is warmer than that on the outskirts, and warm air is advected, or forced in a particular direction, toward the center of the storm where it rises and allows for the stretching of the column and enhanced rotation. With this cold core nature, however, the influx of new air is from the upper atmosphere where there is convergence, so the air is much cooler in the eye than it is even in the eye wall where the warm tropical Atlantic waters are providing moisture.

Below is a rundown of current conditions and my forecast for Wilmington/Wrightsville Beach, NC. All of the information can be found on the National Hurricane Center website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

8:00 PM EDT Fri May 8 Location: 31.9°N 77.3°W Moving: Stationary Min pressure: 1000 mb Max sustained: 45 mph

Tonight 11 pm - midnight: Showers possible 

Tomorrow 7:00 am - 10:00 am: Rain will continue broken due to outer rain band

Tomorrow Noon - 4:00 pm: Another outer rain band will produce heavier precipitation

Sunday midnight - 3:00 am: A third rain band will make its way on shore

Sunday 4:00 am - 5:00 am: The storm will be making its debut as the outer wall makes landfall 

Sunday 10:00 am: The eye should make landfall. Heavy rain should continue for the remainder of the day into the overnight hours due to slowness of northward propagation. 

Monday - The back side of the storm will continue to dump rain into the late morning/early afternoon as Ana continues to move northnortheastward. 

If anyone has any questions about their specific location, go ahead and post on my facebook page found here: https://www.facebook.com/miscan5000?ref=aymt_homepage_panel. I would be happy to answer questions about what the weather will be like in different locations across the state!

Tropical Season before Tropical Season

Summer (Break) has arrived for many college students across the United States, and this is a much-needed break for many people I know. However, work never ends. Fortunately for meteorologists, work and play are synonymous. Forecasters in both KILM (Wilmington, NC), KCLX (Charleston, SC), KJAX (Jacksonville, FL) and KAMX (Miami, FL) have been working very hard in an attempt to accurately forecast the possible formation and propagation of what may be our first named storm of the season, which will actually form before the season that doesn't even officially begin until June 1!

Currently the National Hurricane Center has the map marked that there is greater than a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation, and it sure is beginning to act like a TC in with respect to numerous factors: warm core system, upper level low atop surface low in the short-range trough, strong uniform counterclockwise rotation, and  rain bands beginning to form along the coastal fronts associated with the system. SC and GA are being affected currently, and SE NC should feel the effects of this storm over the weekend. Due to an El Nino event climatologically, this year is expected to be a less active tropical year than years past. However, if conditions are favorable, climate does not always drive the weather, and specific events like tropical cyclones are able to form even if climate suggests otherwise.

In addition, severe weather is really kicking up in the midwest. Yesterday and last night, a line of severe tornadic supercell thunderstorms moved through Oklahoma, causing far more than just wind damage. Tornadoes ripped apart structures, but flooding also "uprooted" homes and other structures which were never meant to leave the ground, like Storm Shelters. This image to the right is that of a storm shelter (by @KOCOdamonlane sent to Moore Oklahoma Tornado Recovery page on Facebook) which was displaced from its location in the ground due to the flooding of the water tables. Unfortunately, there was one death associated with these storms, and the ironic thing about it is that the individual died in a flooded storm shelter. Another interesting story is that loosed animals from the Tiger Safari Zoo in Tuttle, Oklahoma, have all been accounted for. Yes, Tigers were on the loose for some number of hours.

Unfortunately this is all the time I have for right now. I am going to try to post more often this summer. I hope everyone has a fantastic summer and is able spend some time soaking up the Vitamin D!