Summer Tropical Activity!

Hello All!! I have great news (Or it could be bad news depending on how you feel about tropical cyclones)! There is a 30-40% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the Mid-Atlantic within 24-48 hours, and a 50-60% chance for cyclone formation for the 90-114 (4-5 day) hour outlook. I will keep you all posted on this as new discoveries about the system are made. Below is the TC Outlook for the Western Atlantic:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles east of the
coast of Georgia continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to remain
conducive for gradual development of this system while it drifts
southward offshore of the northeastern and east-central Florida
coast during the next few days.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

Also, the National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories in the Eastern Pacific for Tropical Depression FOUR-E which will likely intensify into a Tropical Storm later today. These are wind and high-seas advisories for small and medium sized watercraft in the area and fishermen and boaters need to be careful of the storm. As you can see, the forecast cone for Tropical Depression FOUR-E shows the storm moving further out into the lower-latitudinal Pacific.




North Carolina

Weather should be beautiful and summer-like yet again in the Triangle and Sandhills. In Raleigh today, the temperature will probably hang around the mid 80s with mostly sunny skies. In the mountain cities, it is likely that rain will persist throughout the day as the Low Pressure Center SE of South Carolina and the High Pressure System NE of Virginia are combining for an influx of warm moist air, which will cause condensation and rain because of the forced lifting by the mountains. The beach should have nice weather, similar to the plains, but could see isolated thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and evening. Wilmington should see high temperatures around 85 with a chance for an isolated thunderstorm.

United States

At this time there are a few storms moving across the Midwest. Storms are showing up on the Doppler in North Dakota, on the TN/AR border, and along Lake Superior. There is also some rain on the leeside of the Appalachians in VA, NC, and SC.

Southern and Eastern Utah along with Western Colorado are under a Red Flag warning as conditions are favorable for the spread of wildfires.

Also, as I am writing this, there is a tornado warning in NW Kansas and the storm is moving SE! If you live between Oakley and Scott City, Kansas take cover and put your severe weather safety plans to good use!

Severe Weather Statement

Well, I was going to post this on Tuesday but work hasn't been more crazy. Below is the video of the special weather statement for the Nebraska twin twisters on June 16th. Both of these tornadoes clocked wind speeds of nearly 200 mph making them both EF4's on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. The storm chasers in this video who are down the road at the start of the video are Reed Timmer and his team. They were dropping ground probes in front of the tornado. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GOALuziIv4

As the temperatures rise, the potential for more severe storms increases. Higher surface temperatures likely means greater instability which permits violent turning in the atmosphere producing more and more of these supercell thunderstorms. Below is the forecast map and radar for the United States right now.

 Fortunately we don't see more colors on both of these maps at the current time. I am glad that there are no Red Flag Warnings down in the Southwestern United States (which would appear as hot pink on the alert map and splotchy blue on the radar). There is a good-sized system moving across into Illinois and Indiana which has a history of flooding and potential for a few tornadoes as well. Also, be aware of the other storm moving across Oklahoma right now. As temperatures rise, we could see some potentially severe weather produced from that.

Speaking of temperatures rising, the high in Raleigh yesterday was 97 degrees with a heat index of 101. This is an interesting fact because the hottest day of Raleigh's summer last year only reached 96 and that was on July 16th. We are in for a beater here in NC. Make sure you are all drinking plenty of water as the temperatures rise in order to prevent heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

At this time there are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans.

I hope you all are having a great week! Congratulations to the USA Men's Soccer Team as they defeated Ghana 2-1 last Monday night! I look forward to watching them take on Portugal this Sunday, on my 21st birthday, in hopes to make it out of the group of death and into the elimination round!

Birthday Month!

Well, today is June 16th. Happy belated Father's Day dad!! Disappointed that I couldn't spend it with you but I know that you are having a fantastic trip! After a beautiful Father's Day here in North Carolina, we had a gorgeous start to the week! Today happens to be my younger brother's 19th birthday. HAPPY BIRTHDAY DAVID! He is actually not in the states right now, as he is on a mission's trip to Peru! This post is especially for him as I needed to post on his birthday. Where has the time gone?? I remember the days of raking out in the front yard, or playing street hockey or basketball in the cul-de-sac, or playing capture the flag in our neighbors yards after the sun set in the winter. Now, we share different memories, like traveling to Spain with the NC State Power Sound of the South Marching Band, or throwing the Frisbee in Duke Gardens. My how times have and memories have changed, yet I love how we can still enjoy our time with each other. 

My brother is on a bus right now to Chincheros, Peru up in the mountains. Currently, the temperature is 43 F with temperatures expected to drop to 37 with clear skies. Tomorrow the high is forecasted to reach the mid 60s with partly sunny skies and a chance for showers. The forecast is basically exactly the same for Wednesday.

Here in Raleigh there is an Air Quality Statement as Ozone levels are dangerously high at the surface level so be careful if you start feeling off while you're outside. Below is the current outlook:

NCZ007>009-024>026-040>042-180100-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...
FRANKLINTON...SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...
CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON
432 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND NATURAL RESOURCES
HAS ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY FOR THE TRIANGLE...IN EFFECT
FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY.

A CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR OZONE HAS BEEN ISSUED.
GROUND LEVEL OZONE CONCENTRATIONS WITHIN THE REGION MAY APPROACH
OR EXCEED UNHEALTHY STANDARDS. MEMBERS OF SENSITIVE GROUPS MAY
EXPERIENCE HEALTH EFFECTS...THOUGH THE GENERAL PUBLIC IS UNLIKELY
TO BE AFFECTED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT THE
NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF AIR QUALITY WEB SITE AT

HTTP://DAQ.STATE.NC.US/AIRAWARE/FORECAST/

$$

---

NCZ057-069>072-082-180145-
ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SALISBURY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...
CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE
944 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND NATURAL RESOURCES
IN RALEIGH NC HAS ISSUED A CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY FOR
GROUND LEVEL OZONE...IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY.

AN AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY MEANS THAT GROUND LEVEL OZONE
CONCENTRATIONS WITHIN THE REGION MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED UNHEALTHY
STANDARDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT THE NORTH
CAROLINA DIVISION OF AIR QUALITY WEB SITE AT
WWW.NCAIR.ORG/AIRAWARE/FORECAST/.

$$
JOH

Tomorrow morning I will have a more thorough US outlook. For now, have a great night. 

Summer Already!?

Well, the meteorological summer doesn't start until the summer solstice, or the longest day of the year, which this year is on Saturday, June 21st (the day before my 21st birthday). This weather sure does feel like summer though!

So far we have had multiple summer-like days with temperatures reaching the mid 90s, heat indices in the low 100s, and afternoon and evening thunderstorms producing rain and even hail in some parts of the state. Today will be more of the same. The high will be around 90 and there is a good chance for thunderstorms, like the one which is currently sitting directly over my house.

This weekend should be pretty nice. Temperatures will hover around the mid 80s and skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy. Good weekend to get outside and enjoy catching some rays.

Much of the southwest is under a Red Flag warning right now, but hopefully the potential severe thunderstorms for the eastern part of this region will keep the wildfires at bay.

Though I have been checking the weather on a regular, sometimes hourly basis, I have not taken time to sit down and write a post until now. I will try to be more regular with these posts.