First Hurricane of the Season. Name....Bonnie?

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season may be starting off early with what could become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm within the next couple of days. Should it become a named storm, though, it would be given the name Bonnie. Why start with a "B" name? The National Hurricane Center actually isn't. Back in January, a cluster of storms similar to this one organized around a low in the Caribbean, and with max sustained wins of 85 mph was considered a Sub-Tropical Storm and named "Alex". Now, almost 5 months later, the second storm of the year is forming. According to Dr. Richard Pasch of the National Hurricane Center, "Alex" was the first hurricane to form in January since 1938 and was named "Hurricane One". That's 78 years since the last January Hurricane!

Set-up

This photo was taken from the National Hurricane Center's
official site http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

GIF from 14Z 05272016 through 00Z 05302016

Nothing has formed yet except for a cluster of showers around a Low pressure center, however the increasing organization of the cluster in addition to forecast models pointing to the development and landfall of a tropical or sub-tropical system, there is a very good chance that this Memorial Day weekend could be more of a wash-out than many would hope. Currently Marine forecasters are calling for a 90% chance of formation into a tropical system within the next 48 hours. I have saved a GIF from the College of DuPage's Next Generation Weather Lab with the hi-res convective precipitation forecast for the next 60 hours. This GIF is essentially a time-lapse of what could happen between breakfast time today and dinner time on Sunday. The gist of this setup is that South Carolina and Western North Carolina as well as the NC Coast will receive the heaviest precipitation with widespread showers across NC and VA up through the Mid-Atlantic States. There is still a lot... up in the air... about what will actually happen in the way of wind damages and within isolated cells. If this cluster of convective cells organizes it is very possible that coastal regions could experience some mild storm surge in addition to heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds. 

Hazards

The main hazards at this point are wind and rain. Heavy rains could produce flooding and flash flooding, and if the heaviest precipitation falls in Central SC, an already damaged, rebuilding area could receive more damaging flooding. The wind speeds, depending on how the system organizes, could range anywhere from 40 mph to 80 mph before making landfall, though the current meteorological situation looks promising for winds in the upper half of that range. 

Stay up-to-date from your local TV stations! I will be posting from Facebook and Twitter throughout the weekend via re-tweets and shares. 

I would like to take this last statement I make to thank the men and women who have served in our country's military. It is because of them that we continue to enjoy the freedoms we consider to be human rights. They do not get as much credit, respect, or recognition as they deserve. Thank a military service person this weekend especially, and in honor of Memorial Day, if one of your family members has served and fallen in the line of duty, I share my condolences with you and your family, but equally important I share my utmost respect and gratitude for your family member, whoever it may have been in whatever event, thank you.