By now the new is out that much of NC and part of VA will be seeing some unusual white flaky stuff falling from the sky. No, that's not your morning portion of Frosted Flakes... it's SNOW!
The Setup:
High pressure is established off the coast of New England and a low pressure system is pushing past the Carolinas in proximity to the coast. This gives us northeasterly winds and colder air and sustained moisture. As the low tracks out to sea, winds will shove moisture inland above a cool pool of air banked against the mountains which will cause mixed-phase precipitation to fall. While temperatures are not yet freezing at the surface, as frozen precipitation falls and makes contact with the ground, the ground heat flux will act to melt the precipitation, thereby cooling the ground. Continuing precipitation will, after a couple hours, begin sticking to the ground which at that time will have dropped to freezing.
Where:
At this point it is quite clear that the Mountains, and East of Charlotte to North of Fayetteville will all see some effect of this winter storm. While models have yet to agree on the exact bullseye for heaviest precipitation, there is general consensus that the further North and East you go toward Virginia Beach, generally the more accumulation expected, and the further South and West toward Charlotte and toward the SC border likely only rain to Trace (<0.01") is expected).
When:
The precipitation will begin as rain for the majority of the region, transitioning to snow for the central Piedmont to the coast as the day wears on. It will begin primarily as snow the further north you are. Precipitation will begin falling in the Charlotte Metro around 9-10, progressing to the east north east. By lunch time most of NC will be experiencing precipitation, and by 4:00 p.m. northern and northeastern NC will have transitioned to snow. Precipitation will have stopped falling by the morning commute on Friday, however totals will have stacked up by then.
How Much (winter, that is):
Charlotte: trace to 0.5"
Fayetteville: ~0.5" to 1"
Greensboro: ~0.5" to 1"
Durham: 0.5" to 1.5"
Sanford: ~0.5" to 1"
Raleigh: 1" to 2"
Henderson: 2" to 3"
Wilson: 2" to 3"
Goldsboro: 2" to 3"
Kinston: 2" to 3"
Greenville: <5"
Rocky Mount: <5"
Roanoke Rapids: 2" to 3"
South Hill, VA: 1" to 2"
These are rough estimates based model guidance. It's not fact, and should be compared to other sources. With storms such as these which have little confidence in terms of amount and location, I like to air on the side of caution when reporting forecast amounts. This is not to say that these totals above will not have an impact for the Friday commute.
How long will it last?
The temperature this weekend will be rising back into the 50s with sunny skies for most of the region behind this system, meaning things will melt away fairly quickly. Thursday night into Friday morning is the main concern with respect to travel.
Please be safe! Have your weather radio and flashlight handy in case of power outage! Stay off the road if you do not have to leave the house! Last but not least, enjoy the first real snow of this winter!
