Summer Tropical Activity!

Hello All!! I have great news (Or it could be bad news depending on how you feel about tropical cyclones)! There is a 30-40% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the Mid-Atlantic within 24-48 hours, and a 50-60% chance for cyclone formation for the 90-114 (4-5 day) hour outlook. I will keep you all posted on this as new discoveries about the system are made. Below is the TC Outlook for the Western Atlantic:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles east of the
coast of Georgia continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to remain
conducive for gradual development of this system while it drifts
southward offshore of the northeastern and east-central Florida
coast during the next few days.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

Also, the National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories in the Eastern Pacific for Tropical Depression FOUR-E which will likely intensify into a Tropical Storm later today. These are wind and high-seas advisories for small and medium sized watercraft in the area and fishermen and boaters need to be careful of the storm. As you can see, the forecast cone for Tropical Depression FOUR-E shows the storm moving further out into the lower-latitudinal Pacific.




North Carolina

Weather should be beautiful and summer-like yet again in the Triangle and Sandhills. In Raleigh today, the temperature will probably hang around the mid 80s with mostly sunny skies. In the mountain cities, it is likely that rain will persist throughout the day as the Low Pressure Center SE of South Carolina and the High Pressure System NE of Virginia are combining for an influx of warm moist air, which will cause condensation and rain because of the forced lifting by the mountains. The beach should have nice weather, similar to the plains, but could see isolated thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and evening. Wilmington should see high temperatures around 85 with a chance for an isolated thunderstorm.

United States

At this time there are a few storms moving across the Midwest. Storms are showing up on the Doppler in North Dakota, on the TN/AR border, and along Lake Superior. There is also some rain on the leeside of the Appalachians in VA, NC, and SC.

Southern and Eastern Utah along with Western Colorado are under a Red Flag warning as conditions are favorable for the spread of wildfires.

Also, as I am writing this, there is a tornado warning in NW Kansas and the storm is moving SE! If you live between Oakley and Scott City, Kansas take cover and put your severe weather safety plans to good use!