Below I have laid out the weather, hazards, and class/game cancellation forecast in that order.
P-Type, Timing, and Accumulation
Precipitation will start Friday morning after midnight. Initial precipitation type will likely be a snow/sleet mix with possible accumulation of between 1-2 inches before a true transition to sleet and freezing rain after sunrise on Friday.
Throughout the day Friday we can expect a mix of sleet and freezing rain with accumulations around 0.3-0.5" of ice in the Piedmont with possible 0.60" or more down toward Charlotte.
*Updated from last night based on latest model runs and temperature/precipitation forecasts.
*Updated from last night based on latest model runs and temperature/precipitation forecasts.
Late Friday night, a "warm nose", or area of warmer air above cooler air in the lower atmosphere , will arise from warm air advection ahead of the low pressure system (likely due to a coastal warm front in this case). This warmth will likely allow for the production of liquid rain which will last a few hours before transitioning back to sleet/freezing rain until early morning Saturday (before sunrise).
*This rain is potentially devastating for two reasons. First, it will allow for melting in some areas while refreezing to create black ice. Secondly, it will potentially reach the surface as freezing rain depending on specific temperatures creating an even heavier glaze.
Saturday around sunrise precipitation will make a transition back to snow and will remain a combination of snow/sleet for the duration of the event. This will last until late afternoon and even on into the evening depending on how quickly the storm propagates and will allow for another 0.5-1" of accumulation on top of the glaze from overnight.
Hazards
1. Traffic/Travel: Obviously, the first and most important hazard is traffic. Traffic will be horrendous if anyone is on the road and with the roads being as slick as they will be with this event, it would be wise to stay home after going to get bread and milk on Thursday night (if there is any left). Once the event starts, it will not finish for a couple days.
2. Power Outages: If you are home tomorrow or preparing for this storm and you have a generator, tomorrow would be the day to make sure it is working properly. With how much ice this storm is capable of producing and forecasted to produce, it is likely that there will be some power outages at the very least localized in heavier areas of ice accumulation if not more widespread from tree limbs and trees falling under the weight of the ice.
*Power outage possible in areas where heavier ice accumulation expected in the Piedmont.
3. Gas: I'm not sure how many of you have gas stoves or furnaces, but tomorrow would be a good day to not only prepare those and make sure propane tanks are filled, but also to fill up your cars in case you get caught out somewhere this weekend, just to make sure you won't run out of fuel.
4. Lighting: No, not light'n'ing, but lighting. Make sure extra candles and lighters are accessible and flashlights have fresh batteries in case of a power outage.
Class Cancellation Forecast
And now, the moment the students have all been waiting for! Drum Roll, Please!
Okay so cutting to the chase. We will not have classes on Friday. It may take the university until late Thursday night or even Friday morning before cancelling classes as:
1. The university staff needs to sleep as well and
2. The university staff wants to make sure precipitation has fallen and is making for hazardous road conditions before cancelling classes.
This forecast is two-fold as well. The second question is whether the Duke game on Saturday will still happen. Last year Duke did not travel to UNC in a couple inches of snow for the safety of the players and coaches, and this year the trip for the team will be slightly longer than last year with more menacing road hazards. I, at this point before any precipitation has fallen and seeing how the state and universities handle clearing the roads and highway safety, will say that the game will need to be postponed. However, there have been "snow" games in the past at PNC Arena, and I think it would be pretty awesome to have one again!
Monday is a toss-up for right now. We will likely have classes on Monday, however there is a slight chance at this point that there will be a two hour delay. That delay is based on how long clouds stick around from this system and how warm the temperature gets on Sunday, because Sunday night anything left on the ground will re-freeze creating another travel nightmare for Monday morning.