Today marks the end of the first month of hurricane season, but also the last day of the United States Department of Defense's three operational weather satellites providing valuable weather data to our forecasters, especially those along the coast and in the National Hurricane Center. This is removing critical tools from the belt of forecasters, so much so it can be compared to a carpenter missing a saw or a hammer. They can still get the job done, but having the right tools makes it more efficient, accurate, precise, and professional. It's no secret that this administration, for whatever reason, loathes environmental sciences, and it's going to affect tens of millions of people as this hurricane season progresses. Allow me to explain:
What do they do? |
| What weather satellites do |
These weather satellites provide information such as storm organization, remotely sensed moisture, convective activity, lightning, eye wall formation, and more (including monitoring sea ice). This data is collected using microwaves, allowing meteorologists and climatologists to see data real-time no matter what time of day.
What does this mean?
This means that we much have less data over open water. We have less data to:
- Remotely sense hurricanes offshore to determine eye wall replacement, intensification 100+ miles out from land, and wobble of the storm for organization and storm direction.
- Preemptively prepare the Hurricane Hunters to fly missions gathering real-time wind speed, direction, precipitation, wave fetch, etc.
- Continue providing 3–5-day intensity and track forecasts with accuracy
- Narrow the cone of uncertainty to a 100–150-mile swath 5-7 days out.
- Accurately forecast landfall to within 2 miles 2-3 days out.
- Update storm surge, hurricane intensity, and max sustained wind speed maps within 12 hours of landfall.
Why is this important?
 |
| Monitoring TCs with Lightning and Satellite Data |
If you live in an area affected by hurricanes, you are going to feel more out of the loop as these storms are approaching, and there's a higher chance that forecasts are more inaccurate. This inaccuracy is NOT because the forecasters are getting worse. It is because they do not have all the tools they need to do the best job they can. Weather models require excellent input data, and scientists and forecasters use this data to interpolate and apply our knowledge of the environment to determine what a weather system will do.
If you have made it this far, thank you for reading and I hope you have a better understanding of how remotely sensed weather data helps us in hurricane forecasting. Keep educating yourselves as knowledge is the best weapon against ignorance and truth is the best counter to misinformation.
I'll be back with more posts this summer especially, but in the meantime, keep your eyes to the skies!
