Snow, or No Go? Cleaning up the Confusion

What's up Wolfpack! I want to see snow as much as all of you, but this storm just doesn't look like it is going to be the one to produce the heavy accumulation we are hoping for. Allow me to discuss the now 12-15 hours leading up to the event. For the summary and my forecast for Sunday, scroll to the bottom. If you want to read the science behind it, awesome!

Meteorologic Necessities

The 540-decameter line/ Temperature: This is a measure of atmospheric thickness. Atmospheric thickness is essentially a function of average temperature within that atmospheric layer. Generally speaking for the southeastern United States, the 540-line depicts the thickness of the surface to mid-troposphere, and typically the average air temperature is cold enough for the production of wintry precipitation. 

- In the case of this storm on Sunday morning, the models are calculating the 540-line to be north and west of Raleigh

- The other situation concerning this is the temperature profile of the lower atmosphere. The average temperature can be way below freezing, but the lowest 500-750 feet is above freezing; in this case rain would be the falling precipitation.

Moisture, Frozen Particles: It's very hard to have precipitation without moisture, naturally. Moisture is required for the production of precipitation, and even more so supercooled water (liquid droplets colder than -20 C) and ice particles are almost necessary for frozen precipitation. Supercooled water droplets need something to adhere to. If there are cold dust particles, ice fragments, or other particles in the atmosphere, supercooled water droplets adhere to them on contact.

- Lack of moisture does not seem to be the problem now as models are in agreement that a storm is materializing, however the lower atmosphere are projected to be above freezing, and the layer even to the middle troposphere will just not be cold enough.
- In the case of the warmer atmosphere, there will not be as much supercooled water and there will be significantly less ice crystals, and therefore a significantly smaller chance of mixed precipitation.

Processes:

Tonight the temperature is going to begin cooling off. The Canadian High pressure system is building down into the central and northeastern United States. Actually, the NWS has issued wind chill warnings and advisories for much of ND, SD, NE, IA, WI, IN.

The winds we experience as the temperature is cooling off however will shift to a more northerly wind. The cyclone which will affect us is moving through the southeast along the Gulf coast now. When the cyclone moves along the Carolina coast, moisture from both the Gulf and the Atlantic will move quickly over land. Cloud cover increasing overnight tonight will aid in temperatures remaining warm.

Precipitation will fall from morning until after lunch but should end in the early afternoon, varying in time from location to location with eastern NC receiving precipitation later into the day than further west.

Day of the Demon Deacon's Demise

It's game day again in Wolfpack country! This will be the first game this season we have the full band at where it doesn't rain. Currently I am en route to Winston Salem with the NCSU Power Sound of the South Marching Band in preparation for our third conference game of the season.

We have some history, though bad, in Winston Salem. We have not won away at Wake Forest since 2001, 14 years ago. Philip Rivers, Russel Wilson, and Mike Glennon all tried and failed to pull out a W in Winston Salem.

Gameday Stats

Let's look at some offensive stats from this year. In the 4 games with rain, NC State  has put 132 points up on the board. In the two games without rain, NC State has amounted 101 points. In games with rain, NC State put up a total of 1,371 yards of offense and in games without, NC State moved the ball for 1,021 yards. I understand that the comparison for points and yards above does not take into account the difference in difficulty in the conference games against VT and Louisville, however I am just looking at the numbers. NC State is an 8.5 point favorite today with an over/under line of 45 points, and I sure hope it's over that.

Gameday Weather

The weather is going to be gorgeous in Winston Salem today! There is nothing really to speak of. The sun is going to be shining through partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, and the air closer to the surface will still be relatively dry though moisture may increase slightly with a slight easterly breeze in the afternoon. Those making the drive can expect a temperature of around 60 or 61 at the time of kickoff with a high peaking in the late afternoon after the game reaching about 66-67.

Gameday Items

I only recommend a couple things today: chap stick and sunglasses. The band in the past has been on the east side of the stadium looking west, and the sun has always been directly in our eyes. In addition, the dry air mass we have been experiencing along with the sunshine and a light breeze today can chap lips pretty quickly by evaporating the moisture on your lips. Protect your lips and eyes!

We need your support, Wolfpack Nation! There is plenty of time to still have an awesome season, and it's going to be a larger mental battle than physical battle today! Let's get ourselves a conference win and break a 2-game losing streak in the season and a 6-game losing streak in Winston Salem! Let's go Wolfpack!

Wolfpack Going Turkey Hunting

It's game day again Wolfpack! Today though we are back out of state, hunting the Hokies in Blacksburg, VA. Unfortunately, it is likely going to be another rain game...

An approaching cold front will help to produce precipitation in Virginia this evening, overnight, and throughout the day tomorrow. The game is at 8:00 tonight and our 100-piece pep band are bringing our ponchos because of the chances for rain tonight. I'm not sure whether Lane Stadium allows umbrellas or not, so it would be a good idea to bring a rain coat with you to have. 

Blacksburg

The temperature today is likely going to reach the upper 70's, however tonight ahead of that cold front the temperature is going to drop down into the low 50's. There is a northeasterly breeze which will be persistent but not strong throughout the game helping the temperature to cool off a bit. Tomorrow the cold front will make it's way through Blacksburg and Raleigh, The high tomorrow in Blacksburg will likely not rise out of the 50's, and tomorrow night after the heavier rain and thicker clouds clear out the temperature will drop into the low 40's. 

Raleigh

The temperature today in Raleigh has already risen into the low 80's and may rise a few more degrees before increasing cloudiness slows the solar heating to a stop. Increading cloud cover tonight will turn into precipitation tonight ahead of the approaching cold front, and the low tonight will drop into the low 60's. Tomorrow, the high will settle around the mid 60's due to overcast skies and precipitation, and tomorrow night after the front passes the temperature will drop to near 50, so be sure to take a jacket out with you tomorrow night if you go out. 

Put on your game faces everyone and help get our team the conference win we need! This would be an awesome win for our team, and a great momentum builder into the next couple weeks. It's Game Day! Let's go Wolfpack!

The Monarchy is Ending

It's Game Day Wolfpack!! Today we travel to Norfolk, Virginia to take over Old Dominion University. We are wolves, hunting, and we're hungry. It's time to end the Monarch's rein.

Today is going to be a beautiful day! Conditions in Norfolk currently are 82 degrees under partly sunny skies with a slight chance of precipitation within the next couple hours. Once that chance clears out skies will be mostly sunny with a high today around 85 and a low tonight in the upper 60's.

If you going to the game, wear red! If my understanding is correct, ODU is trying to organize a white-out for today, so the red will certainly make a statement. We're taking a 50-piece pep band, and with that we will overwhelm their 19k person stadium. Let's come out of this game 3-0! Let's go Wolfpack! Beat ODU! It's Game Day!

Colonels Expecting General Loss, Commander

It's Game Day again, Wolfpack Nation! This weekend seems to be very similar to last weather-wise. A warm, moist southwesterly wind is helping the atmosphere provide the low cloud cover right now as well as helping organize lines of thunderstorms along the strong cold frontal boundary moving eastward ahead of the strengthening upper-level trough. Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and this evening in association with this cold front and the weaker boundary behind it. I am not sure how much lightning will be produced by these storms, but if you remember last year, we needed to evacuate the stadium because lightning was too close within the bubble the NCAA and ACC have set up for lightning safety. There is a chance we will need to evacuate the stadium again today.

What to Know for this Afternoon

Lines of storms are already organizing in south central NC as well as central western NC. The initial line has moved through Fayetteville and is working its way toward Greenville and Wilmington. The secondary line of storms is beginning to extend from Greensboro down to Charlotte.

Timing: Based on what I am seeing from a couple models, it could be raining before the game on some of the tailgating. The strongest line of storms will likely move through near the beginning of the game, between 6:00 and 7:00. After that, because of the slow-moving nature of this system, it could possibly be raining through the rest of the night on and off.

What to Bring

Band - We will need Ponchos again. Jacket, Pants, Black Socks and Shoes, Gloves, Gauntlets, Hats, and Ponchos should be the uniform parts for today.

Fans - It would be wise to bring a rain jacket, poncho, or umbrella to the game.

Let's Go Wolfpack!!

14 Years ago. Like it was yesterday. Respect those who serve.

September 11, 2001, was a Tuesday like any other. The sun rose on the Eastern seaboard in New York City at 6:33 am, just over two hours before an unbelievable terror engulfed the most powerful nation in the world.

A strong upper level ridge had pushed through the Northeastern United States, stalling and redirecting hurricane Erin, which was a category 1 at the time, from moving back toward the coast and potentially causing flight delays in Boston and NYC. Instead of 70 mph winds and sideways rain, the Big Apple woke up to a gorgeous seasonal 67 F and mostly sunny skies.

I was in third grade. I remember it like it was yesterday. I was attending school at North Raleigh Christian Academy at what was the Durant campus. We all left school very shortly after arriving, and my teacher seemed distraught. When my brother and I got home, we went next door to see the news. By the time we arrived, we watched the second plane crash into the South tower. I was horrified. "How could someone do something like this to so many innocent people? Were they all going to die?" The questions kept replaying over, and over, and over in my head.

Numbers from this infamous day: Almost 3,000 people total died in the World Trade Centers, the Pentagon, and Flight 93: 343 were firefighters and EMS, 23 NYCPD officers, 37 Port Authority police officers, and 125 military personnel. Over 10,000 other people were treated for injuries. Only 6 people who were actually in the World Trade Center towers when they fell, survived.

Over 500, 528 to be exact, were volunteer first-responders. Individuals who put their lives on the line every single day to make sure the general public is safe from harm. Firefighters, Police officers, Paramedics, and members of our military are all volunteers. I was only in third grade, but I remember that time, when being an American citizen meant being an American citizen. Our status as Americans did not rely on the color of our skin, the platform of beliefs we held, or the label we could have had from life circumstances. Being an American meant being a part of something bigger and better, having opportunity to grow and learn, being a piece of the heterogeneous homogeneity characterized by the melting pot we lived in. Why now do we such a hard time seeing the best in one another, and instead assume the worst about someone?

Take today, and this week, and this month, and through the rest of the year to thank our volunteers. Thank a firefighter. Thank a police officer. Thank a Paramedic. For goodness sake thank a member of our armed forces. Thank those who work at the food bank. Thank those who work at consignment shops. Thank those who work in places you frequent. Thank everyone you come in contact with, because without them doing their job, you would not be able to live your life the way you do now. Most of all though, especially today, thank our first-responders.

Game Day The Wolfpack Way!

Wolfpack Nation! It's finally game day in Carter-Finley Stadium!! This has been a long awaited day, and I am really, really looking forward to coming back home!

Weather-wise, today will be less than ideal unfortunately. The National Weather Service is saying that there's about a 40% chance of showers throughout the day, and it looks like that may be the case.

Generally speaking, the temperature will start off this morning at around 70 degrees and will rise to a high much cooler than yesterday settling in the mid 80's. Cloud cover will depend on the amount of moisture and the convection with that moisture as the wind from the northeast blows inland from the coast.

Precipitation Potential

It looks like the main pocket of precipitation may start up in the early afternoon, around 2:00 or so. Once convection initiates with these storms, it is likely that they will begin forming rapidly. Their movement though should move them out of the way fairly quickly, so the rain we receive tomorrow may actually be from multiple storms linked together which formed along others' outflow boundaries.

It looks like broken rain may continue into the evening until about 9:00-10:00, or around the time the game is ending against Troy. Also unfortunate, it looks like the heaviest rain will be falling around halftime. I hope it's not raining at this time, but I cannot control the weather (if I could, I would not be in-debt!).

What to Bring

If you're a member of the team or one of the spirit squad, you know what to do. Band, yes, we will likely need ponchos tomorrow. If you are not a part of the above, it would be wise to bring an umbrella or light rain jacket (it will be too hot for a heavy rain coat or even rain boots).

Band Checklist

Band, remember what we need: Jackets, Hats, Pants, Gauntlets, Gloves, Black Socks, Black Shoes, Instruments (You would think this is a given, right? Well, it's happened.), Ponchos, Sunglasses (optional but helpful), Sunscreen (Recommended).

Wolfpack Nation: This is the time to show the world what we're all about. Bring the noise, bring the cheers, bring the support to pick up everyone in attendance. Carter-Finley needs to ring again with the shouting of 60,000. It's Game Day!! Let's Go Wolfpack!!