Memorial Day - A Day of Remembrance

First and foremost, let us all remember that today is not National Grilling Day. Today is a day to remember those armed service members who have given their lives in order to insure our freedom here in the United States. We have something here in the US which scores of other countries have not been able to experience, and let us not take any of it for granted.

In honor of Memorial Day, I would like to write a special post to commemorate the importance and significance of weather in many of the world's battles and wars.

Around the World

1281: Kublai Khan, grandson of Genghis Khan, took his Mongols, who had already conquered most of Asia moved to attack and conquer Japan when a typhoon arose and destroyed most of the 140,000 troops and 4,000 ships. Japan was saved by a western pacific hurricane.

1360: King Edward III of England almost renewed hostilities with France when a hailstorm raked the English countryside. Taking it as a bad omen, instead King Edward signed a peace treaty, the Treaty of Bretigny, with France.

1588: King Philip I of Spain organized the now-famous Spanish Armada to overthrow the reign of Queen Elizabeth I in England. However, between Sir Francis Drake and the North Sea Storms, Spain experienced their greatest naval disaster losing most of their 150 ships armed with 26,000 troops.

1788: It is thought that the French Revolution began sooner than planned due to food shortages caused by a series of crop-ruining hailstorms, similar to those in 1360.

1812: Napoleon's advance into Russia is halted due to the unusually harsh winter.

1815: As a result of heavy rain storms prior to the invasion, Napoleon's troops were outmaneuvered at the Battle of Waterloo as his horses got stuck in the mud in the low ground and were preyed upon by the Allied forces higher up.

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American Battles and Wars

1814: During the continuing War of 1812, the British set our nation's capitol on fire. The fires were put out the next day by a series of severe thunderstorms and possibly tornadoes and being awestruck and surprised by the intensity of these storms, it is believed that the British soldiers may have actually left their positions prematurely.

1940: "Miracle of Deliverance" - The weather allowed for the evacuation of more than 300,000 allied troops from the French Coast at Dunkirk. How?
     1. The English Channel was unusually calm allowing for more than 700 "little ships" and many larger ships to cross.
     2. Clouds and rain hindered the German Luftwaffe from performing bombing raids on the fair-weather coast.
     3. The muddy terrain from the rain prevented tanks from rolling to the coast.

1941: The Japanese dive bombers had the perfect meteorological scenario for their surprise attack on Sunday, December 7. A 5,000 foot cloud deck permitted the main Japanese strike force to fly unseen to the attack zone over Pearl Harbor where the clouds broke and gave the pilots perfect visibility for their attacks on our unsuspecting Pacific naval fleet. Had the cloud base been higher, or not broken over Pearl Harbor, the Japanese pilots would not have been able to cripple the Pacific fleet nearly as effectively because they may have totally missed the Island of Oahu.

1944: The British Meteorological Office two-day weather forecast for the English Channel on June 4th, 1944 was for stormy conditions on June 5th, and calmer conditions on June 6th. The Allied forces attacked in the less favorable weather and took the Germans, who expected a fair-weather attack, completely by surprise on the beach at Normandy. Operation Overlord, also known as D-Day, was far more successful than planned.

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These are just a few examples throughout the last 800 years showing how much of an impact weather can have on the success (or lack thereof) of militaristic campaigns. Below are links with information concerning weather's impact in the military.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/08/weather_and_war_throughout_his.html
http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/space/aberdeen/history.htm
http://www.wunderground.com/news/war-and-weather-photos-20120527
http://www.livescience.com/11339-weather-changed-history.html
http://www.datasync.com/~bouchard/rich/brand2.html

Happy Memorial Day!

In honor of this day for our military, I will be writing a second post immediately after this one going back through American War History and seeing how weather affected different battles and wars.

For this post though, I'd like to bring everyone's attention to the scattered severe thunderstorms which arose yesterday afternoon in the Southeastern US. Last night while I was looking at the radar I noticed numerous severe thunderstorm warnings scattered in SC, GA, and FL counties, including a tornado warning in Jacksonville, FL. With the temperature rising in the US, and moisture coming up from the Gulf of Mexico, more and more of these sporadic thunderstorms are possible across our region. 

I'd also like to take a look at the Eastern Pacific Ocean south of Mexico. Yesterday, Hurricane Amanda because the first hurricane of the season and is quite possibly the strongest May hurricane in history, currently sitting at a Saffir-Simpson Category 4 with sustained winds of 115 kts (135 mph) and a central pressure of 949 mb.
Based on forecasts for Amanda, it looks as though she should be dying out within the next couple of days without doing any damage to the coastline. With hurricanes though, there's no telling what might happen to spark another increase in strength.

For anyone living in Western Mexico, NM, AZ, or CA, it would be wise to keep an eye out for Amanda over the next couple of days just to make sure of a more sea-ward path. It is likely that hurricane Amanda will decrease in strength over the next 48 hours and turn out toward the open ocean.

Below I have posted the current NHC (National Hurricane Center) advisory for Hurricane Amanda.

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON MAY 26 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on major
Hurricane Amanda, located several hundred miles south of the
southern tip of Baja California Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea
NNNN

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No More Out of Control Fires!!

I am pleased to announce that there are ZERO Red Flag warnings on the NWS county forecast map meaning that fire departments either have the wildfires under control, or put out. A lot of the time, with the dry, windy conditions, controlled fires can get out of hand and break their containment. It is in these instances that Red Flag warnings are issued to inform natives and travelers that fires are running out of control and to be mindful of possible hazardous conditions. Currently though, there are no out-of-control fires to speak of. 

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There is a system moving through Texas right now which was strong enough to issue a severe thunderstorm warning. There is some rotation visible in the system so those living in the San Antonio area stay tuned to your local station for updates. Also flash flood warnings and watches have been issued for Victoria, Texas as well as Central and Western Texas and Southeastern NM.

If April Showers bring May Flowers, what do May Showers bring?

If you live in Central NC, then the answer to this question this past weekend was "Floods". Parts of NC and Virginia experienced over 5" of rain in just a 24-hour period. Crabtree Creek was flooded again (as usual) by about 3:00 in the afternoon and other areas followed soon thereafter. The rain wasn't the only issue though. Higher-than-usual wind gusts took down trees all across the state, and even a tornado caused some damage in the Durham area. I spent the weekend in Asheville, NC this weekend with my girlfriend to celebrate another friend's wedding (which was absolutely beautiful by the way), but the wind in the mountains was eerily howling in the windows and trees and occasionally the cracking and banging of a falling pine tree was heard off in the distance.

Mother's day weekend proved difficult for some Midwestern communities as a large severe weather outbreak crashed down undesired on Saturday and Sunday of last week, even as far north as Chicago.

If you notice the blue in West Virginia heading North and East, an interesting cool air outbreak has occurred here toward the beginning of the summer. We have had so many cold fronts move through as a result of the location of the Sub-Tropical Jet Stream, that the Canadian cold air has pushed back unusually far South. Below is the Map of the Jet stream for the same time. Temperatures have dropped into the upper 30s and low 40s at night in the Appalachian Mountains and highs most likely will not climb back into the 80s in Asheville and upper 70s in Boone until Later this week.

With rain seemingly only falling in the Eastern Midwest and the Atlantic Coast, Red flag warnings are running rampant through NM,
AZ, and parts of TX, OK, KS, and CO. Also, there is a small system currently moving across Montana and North and South Dakota which is strong enough for a severe thunderstorm warning there in the middle of the system with watches and warning potential in the surrounding area. This storm is currently moving ESE.

It looks as though for Raleigh this week we should see partly to mostly cloudy skies as the week wears on with temperatures increasing to the upper 80s by Thursday.

Summer for me is in full swing now and now that I have a routine, I should be posting fairly regularly. I start my online English class tomorrow at NC State and I am looking forward to enhancing my meteorological knowledge over the summer by doing some personal reading and working on MATLAB in order to become somewhat proficient at a programming language.

If you have any questions concerning weather for your area, shoot me an email or comment on a post! I am completely open to straightening out confusion and explaining meteorological phenomena in order to help your knowledge and understanding!

2-Day Outlook

Depending on who you are, the next couple of days could be the best 2 days of your life, or the worst 2 days of your life. 

For Meteorologists, this storm is a blessing and a curse. That severe weather forecasting experience is going to come in very handy and the population's faith in meteorologists will be at a new high. For first-responders, this storm will be a nightmare. Flooding, large hail, high winds, and tornadoes possible and likely. As I am writing this, there are 6 tornadoes on the ground in Alabama. Below is a live feed of the national weather service radar.

To answer the burning question in some minds: Yes, I believe that this could be the storm similar to 3 years ago, though not as far north with the tornadoes. 

14 people have died in this storm so far in Arkansas and Oklahoma. Tornadoes are crushing towns and cities, removing all but the foundation of some houses and smashing cars through others. 

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/04/28/307636103/tornadoes-rip-through-arkansas-oklahoma-killing-at-least-17

There are stories of rescue coming from multiple states right now as people are recovered from rubble. Fortunately, Meteorologists have done a fantastic job forecasting and describing the positions of these killer twisters and many lives have been spared despite the wide-spread damage.

The storm is going to be severe enough here in NC that Storm Chaser Reed Timmer is going to be bringing his crew to Eastern NC in the hopes of intercepting a tornado or two. When the professionals come this far east, it means there is plenty of potential for serious weather. 

What does this mean? 

1. Get a tornado action plan ready. Figure out where you need to go, somewhere without outside walls or windows preferably under some sort of sturdy support (under a staircase in the middle of a house).

2. Stay tuned to your local weather stations, and have candles and flashlights ready as well as a batyery operated radio in the event of a power outage or cable tv going out.

3. HEED WARNINGS! Meteorologists do not dish out warnings in vain. Each warning is given due to serious, possibly deadly conditions and need to be taken seriously.

I just moved the radar image above from the website so it should update automatically. That way my blog will stay as updated as possible for the safety of my followers. In the image you can see the fast-moving cold front shoving the warm air mass upward into the upper atmosphere. This intense convergence of cold and warm air is causing a the severity of the storm. Tornadoes are forming in the frontal zone just east of that cold front (which is currently along the Mississippi River). Dozens of tornadoes have been spawned in OK, MO, AR, AL, MS, TN, and LA so far. 

Northern Midwest:

Also seen in the image above is an Occluded Front extending from the northern surface low to the West. This frontal zone is also allowing for severe thunderstorms to form and tornadoes and hail are still possible even as far North as Southern Wisconsin and Michigan so even you guys in the Northern Midwest should keep in touch with your local weather stations so that you have the most accurate up-to-date information for your area. The main portion of severe weather will be in the Southeast though. 

MiScan5000: NC Tornado Outbreak, April 2014

MiScan5000: NC Tornado Outbreak, April 2014: Fortunately the 3-year anniversary of the worst tornado outbreak in the history of North Carolina did not cause as much damage and not nearl...

NC Tornado Outbreak, April 2014

Fortunately the 3-year anniversary of the worst tornado outbreak in the history of North Carolina did not cause as much damage and not nearly as much loss of life. April 2011 was devastating.

Yesterday though, there were two confirmed EF-2 tornadoes which touched down in Pitt and Beaufort Counties, and there was a confirmed report of an EF-0 in Garner. Over 8 counties were under a tornado warning yesterday issued by the National Weather Service, and that many more were under the influence of a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Storm specialists are observing the damages from the tornado in Beaufort County because it may have been an EF-3. This is significant because if it was, it would be the first EF-3 tornado of the year....NATIONWIDE. Yeah, that typically isn't the case. This is actually the longest the nation has gone without an EF-3 tornado reports say. For a video of the damage in Beaufort County, follow the link directly below:

http://www.wibw.com/home/headlines/Strong-Storms-Hit-North-Carolina--Reported-Tornado-Caught-On-Tape-256785191.html

http://www.wunderground.com/news/north-carolina-tornadoes-20140329

Today was far different. I hope all of you had a chance to go outside today because the weather was Glorious! The entire day I drove with the windows down and enjoyed the fresh air. Today my church had a baptism service at Lake Jordan so much time was spent outside (btw the baptism service was awesome!! We had 7 owners baptized!). Tomorrow is going to be almost identical to today, so there is still time to get outside!

Enjoy the time while you can though. Another wave of storms is going to be rolling through this week, and this one much larger (not necessarily stronger) than the front that moved through yesterday.

That area in the Midwest where severe thunderstorms are possible is moving out direction. There is a large warm air mass (hence the warm front moving north) pushing up from the Gulf of Mexico, and a very strong cold front moving east. As the cold air is coming down from the mountains, intense instability will occur causing violent movements of air allowing for rapidly rising and sinking motion. As the warm moist air rises, it will quickly cool and form billowing Cumulonimbus clouds which will turn into supercells. Fortunately, a good rain will likely quench the wild fires in this region as much of the southern Midwest is under a Red Flag Warning right now. 

Severe Weather Statement!

Supercell Thunderstorms are popping up and strengthening rapidly across NC and VA. Currently Davie County, Iredell County, Warren County, Franklin County, Halifax County, Nash County and Rowan County are under tornado warnings until 4:30 pm, and the rest of the state is under a tornado watch until 9:00 pm.

If you don't have one, make a plan of action in the event of a tornado. Beware of hail and stay tuned to your local news stations for weather updates! This is not a drill!