Coastal Forecast *Hurricane* Arthur

Okay ladies and gentlemen this is it! The forecast you've all been waiting for! I currently have friends and family in Oak Island, Wilmington/Wrightsville Beach, Atlantic Beach, and Ocracoke Island so I will make a forecast for each location estimating rainfall, storm surge, wind speed, estimated time of arrival, and duration of Hurricane Arthur for each location. See the beaches in order of Landfall below.

Holden Beach/Ocean Isle/Sunset Beach/Oak Island

The Southeastern Beaches of NC will experience the force of Hurricane Arthur before the rest of the state. This area is currently under a Tropical Storm Warning, since Hurricane Arthur will not actually be making landfall, the eye wall (area with strongest wind speed) will not be hitting this portion of NC. People living in this area can expect to see sustained winds of around 50 kts (~58 mph) with gusts reaching the triple digits. Rain will vary depending on whether the hurricane meets up with the cold front currently moving across our state or not but if so, beach-goers can expect to see around 2-3 inches of rain. The potential storm surge in this area could be around 3 feet above ground, but since the elevation of the region is around 20 feet above sea level, that surge could be diminished. Nonetheless, If you have anything on the ground floor in your garages, it would be good to move those into the house where they will stay dry. The center of the storm is currently about 6.5 degrees lat south and about 1 degree west long moving north-northeastward at about 10 mph. This means that the highest storm surge will be experienced at around 5:00 p.m. and the strongest wind and rain will be experienced around 11:00 p.m.. The storm will likely last around 20 hours (including what has already been experienced), so the fourth of July plans shouldn't be postponed for this area.

It is safe to ride out the storm in this area.

Wrightsville Beach

Both the Holden Beach area and the Wrightsville Beach area are already experiencing some of Arthur. Wrightsville Beach should expect wind speeds around 60-65 kts (69-74 mph) with gusts coming later this evening near 80 mph. Those living in the Wrightsville Beach/Wilmington area can expect around 3-4 inches of rain in the next 36 hours. Storm Surge for Wrightsville Beach/Masonboro Island is predicted at around 4-5 feet, and the Wilmington area surrounding the Cape Fear River should see around 3 feet of storm surge. It would be a good idea to move items into higher areas. The highest storm surge of Arthur should be around 7:00-7:40 p.m. and the highest winds will likely occur around and after midnignt. Arthur should move out of the area by around breakfast time.

It is probably safe to ride out the storm on Wightsville Beach, but I would not recommend it. If you live on the Wilmington mainland, you should be okay.

Atlantic Beach

Atlantic Beach will be the first point of landfall for the eye of Hurricane Arthur. Wind speeds of up to 90 mph can be expected in this region on the back side of the eye wall and storm surge will be around 6-7 feet. The highest surge and strongest winds will both be experienced around 3:00-4:00 tomorrow morning (July 4th) as that is when the eye is going to make landfall on the island. The storm should last around 30-36 hours. The Fourth of July festivities have been postponed until 5:00 p.m. on Saturday, July 5th.

I would highly recommend evacuating this area, as the combination of storm surge and wind speed could provide for devastating effects.

Ocracoke Island

Ocracoke Island shouldn't experience the same force as Atlantic Beach. Though the eye will pass over Ocracoke Island, the surge will not be quite as bad. Surge will probably still be between 3 and 6 feet in some places, but generally the surge will be lower than 3-4 feet. The sustained wind speeds and gusts will be about the same as Atlantic Beach with sustained winds between 75-80 mph and gusts up to 90, and Ocracoke can expect between 3-4 inches of rain. These will be experienced just an hour or two after Atlantic Beach and can be expected between 4:00-6:00 tomorrow morning. The storm will last until the early afternoon. The Fourth of July festivities have been postponed until 5:00 p.m. on Saturday, July 5th.

It should be safe to ride out the storm but I am not promising that your house will not get very wet.

Extra Important Information

Be careful of Tornadoes! Many times the damage of hurricanes comes from tornadoes embedded inside the walls of the hurricane and can be accompanied by hail and heavier rain. Stay tuned to your local weather stations as often and for as long as you can if you decide to ride out the storm!

If you have any questions about storm surge, visit this site and click continue. This storm surge map is "experimental" and is being used to estimate surge for locations in the path of the hurricane based on numerous mathematical formulas and derivations.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/154057.shtml?inundation#contents