Subsequent "Winter is Coming" Accumulation Update for North Carolina

Updated information is necessary!

The band of expected highest accumulation has shifted to the northeast from earlier. Temperatures are a bit warmer aloft than expected a few days ago for this storm. The transition zone is setting up around the Triangle as it usually does with these types of systems. However, 

New Accumulation Expectations

Many respected meteorologists in the area have been seeing similar hints from the models. 

Mountains: 

Boone, Asheville, and other areas in the foothills and higher elevations can expect from 3-7"

Western Piedmont: 

Salisbury, Asheboro, Winston Salem, Greensboro, and up to Danville, VA can expect highest accumulations. Most of these areas can expect 6-10", and higher accumulations will be experienced depending on where heavier mesoscale snow bands set up. Some areas, if conditions are favorable throughout the night into the morning, could see over 12"

Eastern Piedmont: 

Durham, Chapel Hill, Hillsborough, up into Roxboro, Henderson, and down into Pittsboro and Siler City could also see greater accumulation of 6-10" with the same case concerning snow banding. 

Raleigh, Wake Forest, Louisburg, Rocky Mount, and up to Roanoke Rapids are expecting now lower totals of snowfall as there is still that warm air aloft. If dendrites form higher up in the atmosphere, then melt in that warm layer, it will not take much time to cool the atmosphere to freezing at this layer. When this happens we will make the transition to snow here. Snow totals though are backing off to 2-4" for now. We still need to see what happens with that warm layer before making another update on accumulation amounts. 

Sandhills / Upper Coastal Plains: 

Laurinburg, Fayetteville, and Goldsboro have the best chance of snow accumulation in the Sandhills which will start later than other areas once the temperature cools off. All snow is expected by daybreak, however most of the moisture will have precipitated by that point. I am forecasting up to 1-2" max in these areas.

Greenville, Oak City, Murfreesboro, and over to Elizabeth City will be on the transition zone or southeast of it. Most of the accumulation in these towns and cities will be that of sleet transitioning to rain/freezing rain. Snow that falls in these areas will begin closer to lunch and accumulations of less than 1" are expected.

Lower Coastal Plains: Most everywhere else in the quadrant east of I-95 and south of US-64 can expect mostly rain transitioning to a wintry mix late in the morning tomorrow. Very little if any snow accumulation is expected.