Models are in agreement on one thing: there will be precipitation in the Carolinas and Southern Virginia and it will be heavier toward the mountains.
Region
On the left I have pasted screen captures taken from the College of DuPage "Next Generation Weather Lab" where one can observe the model output for the American weather models. These images are every 6 hours starting 7:00 p.m. Saturday through 1:00 a.m. Monday (top to bottom).
*This is raw model output for precipitation type at each of these times and should not be taken as a numerical forecast*
I wanted to include these images to help viewers see some of what forecasters are looking at when they make their forecasts. This is ONE set of images from ONE weather model for ONE atmospheric parameter, and is by no means the entire picture.
East and South of I-95
For the Sandhills and Coast, this will likely start as rain Saturday afternoon further south and continue as rain through the event, creeping northward overnight Saturday into Sunday and throughout. There is a chance that temperatures will cool enough to see some mix into Sunday afternoon/evening, but I expect the event to be all rain for this region. Amount of precip will decrease northward east of I-95 and the coastal area can expect between 1.25" (Northernmost Sandhills/coast) and 2" (Southern most near Kure Beach and the SC border).
The foothills and mountains will experience the most accumulation of snowfall throughout the event. The latest model runs are suggesting on the order of 12"+ for this region. Precipitation will begin falling in the western-most reaches of the state as early a few hours from now, and will be a mix of snow and rain. As the weather system progresses eastward, snowfall will intensify northward and rainfall will intensify eastward until around dinner time when a mix will start to be experienced west and north of Charlotte and west and south of Winston Salem. Overnight as the temperature continues to cool an precipitation falls into the Cold Air Damming Wedge banked up against the mountains, the transition will be made to snow quite rapidly across the state from the mountains all the way to I-95. The Sandhills and NC/SC border west of State highway 1 will likely experience a mix, and east of State Highway 1 will likely experience rain through this time.
This will make the transition over to largely sleet/mix by Sunday late morning/early afternoon, and further transition to freezing rain into the evening on Sunday.
Between I-85, I-95
Central NC will be a mess for sure, but there will still be plenty of that magic weather from the North Pole for a good portion of Sunday. Saturday will be a primarily rain/mix event for the Piedmont, and the Triangle should begin seeing snow fall steadily around midnight-1:00 a.m.. This will continue for areas as far south as Sampson and Moore counties until breakfast time Sunday when the transition to mix will follow a northward time progression at about (one county)/(two hours). By the early afternoon Wake County and areas along and south of I-40 will be experiencing a mix if not freezing rain, and the transition to liquid will close in a horse shoe around Winston Salem late Sunday night before moving out.
Hazards
1. Roads will be very hazardous from west to east starting as early as a few hours from now. Be mindful of the conditions and please stay off the road if at all possible. Leave the paths clear for emergency crews and power companies to make their way to their destinations.
2. Power Outages could become a very real situation in Central NC as well as places further west as up to 0.2" of freezing rain is expected to fall in areas across NC. This much freezing rain plus a moderate gust of wind is more than enough to take lines down.... another reason to stay off the road if you can.
3. Cold Temperatures are expected to continue for a couple days after the event with lows dropping into the low 20's by Tuesday night. Be mindful of how much of your body is exposed to the elements must you venture outside.
Expected Accumulations
Mountains: The mountains can expect the greatest snow accumulation of up to 12"+ in some areas
Foothills: Anywhere from 4-8" of snow followed by 1-2" of snow/sleet mix
Northern Piedmont: Anywhere from 4-8" of snow followed by 1-2" of snow/sleet mix; 0.05" frz rain
Central Piedmont: 2-3" snow followed by 2-3" snow/sleet; 0.1" frz rain
Sandhills: 1-2" mix
Coast: 1.5-2" rain, occasional mix further north
These conditions are expected to pan out slightly differently than what is listed above, however I wanted to put together thoughts of forecasters and model information to try to keep everyone as informed as possible for their location. Please tune into your local news/radio stations for updates on the event, and if you can spare a second or two, don't be afraid to share pictures and your location for documentation of the event!
Coming into the Christmas season, I hope everyone can be filled with the Joy of the Spirit of Jesus as we get closer to the celebration of His coming. Merry Christmas everyone!
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