Band Camp!

Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls, prepare yourself for the world's most dangerous marching band! The Power Sound of the South Marching Band at NC State University!

Band camp is officially under way here in Raleigh and the weather could not be more beautiful. Currently we are experiencing partly cloudy skies with relatively low humidity and a temperature of around 80 degrees, though we do have a chance for thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening as a warm front and a stationary front are merging over the Carolinas. Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding is possible in the Northeast and New England states as a cold front pushes the warm front out of the way.

Red Flag warnings are being issued throughout the Northwestern United States as well. As the rain moves out and drier conditions take over, the Pacific High pressure system will be accompanied by winds pushing southward along the Pacific coast, causing the spread of wildfires and hazardous dry conditions.

I couldn't post a forecast for Saturday for my high school band's King's Dominion trip because I didn't have internet at the hotel, but the rain held out for them and they had a wonderful exhausting trip and are back at it this week to get their show ready for the first game.

DCI Finals were incredible. The power which those drum corps posses is unmatched by other musical ensembles. I had a fantastic time and after this experience, not only am I ready for band camp, but this fall I am thinking about auditioning for one of the corps provided there are no hiccups in my schedule. I figured out this year that I have one more year of eligibility, and if I do not have a meteorology-related position somewhere, I would very much like to experience being a part of one of these outstanding musical groups.

I am going to try to post more regularly now that the school year is kicking back into gear. There's always weather going on but unfortunately I can't always make time to post about it. For now, Go Wolfpack! I will have another band/triangle update tomorrow morning.

MiScan5000: DCI Finals!

MiScan5000: DCI Finals!: Well ladies and gentlemen, my girlfriend surprised me again with a wonderful gift! For those of you who know me, I love music. I eat, brea...

DCI Finals!

Well ladies and gentlemen, my girlfriend surprised me again with a wonderful gift!

For those of you who know me, I love music. I eat, breathe, and sleep music. The only thing preventing music from being my life is weather. Well, now my girlfriend

has surprised me with two tickets to Finals for Drum Corps International in Indianapolis, Indiana. Finals are on Saturday and we are driving up tomorrow.

Indianapolis weather shouldn't be too different from weather here in the Triangle, though it will be a bit cooler:
Raleigh should see relatively summer-like weather this weekend...at least from a storm standpoint. A cold front will be moving through tomorrow and Saturday and although thunderstorms and maybe even a few severe t-storms will not be uncommon in the Piedmont, unusually cool temperatures will follow. The high for Raleigh is forecasted to be 86 on Friday, and 76 on Saturday and Sunday with rain throughout most of the weekend. 76? As the high starting the second week in August? Where did the summer go?? The normal high temperature for the month of August in NC is 87 degrees according to some sources. That means that the 90s we have at the beginning of the month are accompanied by low 80s near the end. 76 degrees though with a low around 68-69 for the next 3 nights (Friday, Saturday, and Sunday) is unusually cool. Take advantage of it!

Indianapolis will be experiencing the same weather but just about a day earlier. The cold front is already making its way across the state and temperatures have dropped. The temp in Indiana is 71 right now. Same as Raleigh, but due to time difference is really an "hour cooler" (although that's really not a proper statement). High temperatures over the next 4 days will sit around 79-80, and lows will settle in mid 60s. Oh, and it will be raining. There is a chance for thunderstorms on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Fortunately, Lucas Oil Stadium has a massive roof which can close to brace for impending rain. It's going to be an awesome trip!

I will be returning to NC on Sunday, but driving straight to Wilmington so that I can prepare to take the GRE on Monday morning before heading back for band camp at NC State the next day. It is going to be a busy few days! If I can get internet at the hotel in Indianapolis, I will write a post for Kings Dominion for Saturday (my high school marching band is taking a mid-band-camp trip), and I will post for NC State's band camp on Tuesday.

God Bless and everyone have a great and safe weekend!

Hurricane Iselle AND Julio! Hang on Hawaii!

Hurricane Iselle made landfall today as a Category 2 around 400 miles from Honolulu and is continuing to make it's mark on the Hawaiian mainland. This is the first hurricane in 22 years to make a direct hit on our Pacific State.

Before these hurricanes even began affecting the Islands, a 4.5 magnitude earthquake shook the state. One thing after another for the Pacific Island Chain.

Hurricane Julio is currently heading on a Northwestward path at 17 mph. The eye of this currently Cat 2 hurricane looks like it will pass to the North of Hawaii, and will likely be a Cat 1 or a Tropical Storm by the time the outer wind bands affect the Islands. The latest wind speed data showed recorded sustained winds of 104 mph, making it a very strong category 2 hurricane.

Tropical Storm Bertha!

More Tropical Activity in the Near-Equatorial Atlantic! This is going to be a very short and rather uninformative post because I do not have time to write it, but I needed to update you all on this new tropical activity.

Currently, Tropical Storm Bertha is due east of the Island of Barbados and is tracking West-Northwest.

If you have family in the Caribbean Islands, make sure they are notified of the potential for Tropical-Storm-Force winds and rain.

Coastal Forecast *Hurricane* Arthur

Okay ladies and gentlemen this is it! The forecast you've all been waiting for! I currently have friends and family in Oak Island, Wilmington/Wrightsville Beach, Atlantic Beach, and Ocracoke Island so I will make a forecast for each location estimating rainfall, storm surge, wind speed, estimated time of arrival, and duration of Hurricane Arthur for each location. See the beaches in order of Landfall below.

Holden Beach/Ocean Isle/Sunset Beach/Oak Island

The Southeastern Beaches of NC will experience the force of Hurricane Arthur before the rest of the state. This area is currently under a Tropical Storm Warning, since Hurricane Arthur will not actually be making landfall, the eye wall (area with strongest wind speed) will not be hitting this portion of NC. People living in this area can expect to see sustained winds of around 50 kts (~58 mph) with gusts reaching the triple digits. Rain will vary depending on whether the hurricane meets up with the cold front currently moving across our state or not but if so, beach-goers can expect to see around 2-3 inches of rain. The potential storm surge in this area could be around 3 feet above ground, but since the elevation of the region is around 20 feet above sea level, that surge could be diminished. Nonetheless, If you have anything on the ground floor in your garages, it would be good to move those into the house where they will stay dry. The center of the storm is currently about 6.5 degrees lat south and about 1 degree west long moving north-northeastward at about 10 mph. This means that the highest storm surge will be experienced at around 5:00 p.m. and the strongest wind and rain will be experienced around 11:00 p.m.. The storm will likely last around 20 hours (including what has already been experienced), so the fourth of July plans shouldn't be postponed for this area.

It is safe to ride out the storm in this area.

Wrightsville Beach

Both the Holden Beach area and the Wrightsville Beach area are already experiencing some of Arthur. Wrightsville Beach should expect wind speeds around 60-65 kts (69-74 mph) with gusts coming later this evening near 80 mph. Those living in the Wrightsville Beach/Wilmington area can expect around 3-4 inches of rain in the next 36 hours. Storm Surge for Wrightsville Beach/Masonboro Island is predicted at around 4-5 feet, and the Wilmington area surrounding the Cape Fear River should see around 3 feet of storm surge. It would be a good idea to move items into higher areas. The highest storm surge of Arthur should be around 7:00-7:40 p.m. and the highest winds will likely occur around and after midnignt. Arthur should move out of the area by around breakfast time.

It is probably safe to ride out the storm on Wightsville Beach, but I would not recommend it. If you live on the Wilmington mainland, you should be okay.

Atlantic Beach

Atlantic Beach will be the first point of landfall for the eye of Hurricane Arthur. Wind speeds of up to 90 mph can be expected in this region on the back side of the eye wall and storm surge will be around 6-7 feet. The highest surge and strongest winds will both be experienced around 3:00-4:00 tomorrow morning (July 4th) as that is when the eye is going to make landfall on the island. The storm should last around 30-36 hours. The Fourth of July festivities have been postponed until 5:00 p.m. on Saturday, July 5th.

I would highly recommend evacuating this area, as the combination of storm surge and wind speed could provide for devastating effects.

Ocracoke Island

Ocracoke Island shouldn't experience the same force as Atlantic Beach. Though the eye will pass over Ocracoke Island, the surge will not be quite as bad. Surge will probably still be between 3 and 6 feet in some places, but generally the surge will be lower than 3-4 feet. The sustained wind speeds and gusts will be about the same as Atlantic Beach with sustained winds between 75-80 mph and gusts up to 90, and Ocracoke can expect between 3-4 inches of rain. These will be experienced just an hour or two after Atlantic Beach and can be expected between 4:00-6:00 tomorrow morning. The storm will last until the early afternoon. The Fourth of July festivities have been postponed until 5:00 p.m. on Saturday, July 5th.

It should be safe to ride out the storm but I am not promising that your house will not get very wet.

Extra Important Information

Be careful of Tornadoes! Many times the damage of hurricanes comes from tornadoes embedded inside the walls of the hurricane and can be accompanied by hail and heavier rain. Stay tuned to your local weather stations as often and for as long as you can if you decide to ride out the storm!

If you have any questions about storm surge, visit this site and click continue. This storm surge map is "experimental" and is being used to estimate surge for locations in the path of the hurricane based on numerous mathematical formulas and derivations.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/154057.shtml?inundation#contents

Tropical Storm Arthur

Does anyone remember the show from the 90's? Yeah, I remember growing up with Arthur as one of the cartoons I watched on a regular basis. This Arthur however is far from a cartoon.

The first named storm of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season is Tropical Storm Arthur. Currently packing sustained winds of 35-45 knots with gusts reaching 55 knots at times, Arthur is located 3 degrees east of the Florida/Georgia border and is currently moving N. It is expected to turn more toward the NE and hit the Outer Banks of NC as the Primary Landfall point before continuing up the East Coast. It is possible that this storm could become a Cat 1 Hurricane before making landfall. Regardless of the meteorological categorization, we will experience hurricane force winds in the outer banks should Arthur continue on it's NNEward path. I am considering driving out Thursday night after work so that I can grab some pictures and videos from the beach to post! And because it would be fun haha!

We also have a Tropical Storm in the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Douglas, which will continue NWward into the mid-Pacific Ocean.

So, why was Tropical Arthur able to form? Don't Hurricanes form off the coast of Africa and move in a semicircle path, or form in the gulf and die over the US? Not exactly. There are six factors which contribute to hurricane formation:
1. SST (Sea Surface Temperature) needs to be greater than 80 degrees Fahrenheit for optimal Hurricane formation
2. Easterly Wave or perturbation needs to occur to begin rotation off the coast of Africa
3. Low Wind Shear
4. A convectively unstable atmosphere
5. Sufficient low-level moisture for entrainment or feeding the hurricane
6. Coriolis greater than 5 degrees from the equator. Coriolis is one of the main atmospheric forces when balancing atmospheric rotation and movement of air, and gets stronger with increased speed, rotation, or distance from the equator. The two other forces balanced by Coriolis Force are Pressure Gradient Force and Friction.

When hurricanes form in the Western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico, the Easterly Wave is not the cause of hurricanes. Typically it's as a result of the Continental Low being trapped between the Bermuda High and the Canadian High pressure systems. This is exactly what happened with Tropical Storm Arthur. The rotation of the Continental Low just off the coast of Florida was accelerated by the Canadian High to the Northeast, and the Bermuda High to the Southwest. The rotation acceleration and stationary location over the warm mid-tropical Atlantic waters allowed for a rapid intensification of the Low. Above is the National Forecast Map for June 30, and it is clear that the High Pressure systems are accelerating the Low. The Low rotates counterclockwise, and each of those four Highs are rotating clockwise. That Low meteorologically is trying to get back to it's normal position over the Southeastern United States, but the four High Centers kept it from moving back and accelerated the rotation. Now, the Tropical Storm is moving up the East Coast and following the Gulf Stream and trade winds and will continue until it dies out.

More accurate information will come tomorrow as the track is easier to forecast 24 hours out. I will have more of a forecast post instead of an informational post tomorrow. If you live on the coast, shopping wouldn't be a bad idea! Power shouldn't go out but with weather, anything can happen.