Katia, Jose, and Irma... Oh My!!!

'Tis the Season

The tropics are alive and well as we have reached the peak of hurricane season, and it's not going to stop soon. Currently there are three named storms in the Atlantic basin: Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Jose, and Hurricane Katia. Hurricane Katia will spin up some moisture and head down into central Mexico providing some much-needed rain down there. I will discuss Irma and Jose further below.

Major Hurricane Irma

Hurricane Irma has been catching the nation's attention for almost a week now. Riding the wake of Hurricane Harvey, which just spent a week parked over southeast Texas dumping 7-day record-breaking rainfall totals of over 60" and producing catastrophic flooding, Irma has been forced on a more westward path, alerting the Caribbean and United States of the raw power of God's creation. Tuesday afternoon (18Z 20170906), Air Force Reconnaissance recorded wind data on their flight, including max sustained winds exceeding 185 mph.

The Caribbean Islands are experiencing Category 5 hurricane Irma now and the next island to receive a direct hit will be will be Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Some islands, including Barbuda and St. Martin, have basically been destroyed... In Barbuda, all cell phone towers have been knocked over, the reinforced steel bent and twisted from the strength of the winds.

One aspect of this storm to keep in mind is its relation to the Synoptic, or large-scale environment. High pressure building into the Great Plains is forcing Irma on a more westnorthwestward path, however as the trough ahead of it lifts out into the northern Atlantic, Irma is expected to make a sharp turn to the northnortheast. It has already begun heading more NW than earlier, and models now have major hurricane Irma running up the east coast, potentially making landfall in Miami on Sunday morning/afternoon.

Georgia and the Carolinas are currently in the line of sight for Irma, however northern Hispanola, the Bahamas, and Florida reside in the immediate path. Much destruction has already occurred in the Caribbean, and although Irma has weakened slightly, more is to be expected with the now max sustained 180 mph winds. I have pictured to the left the most updated ensemble projections for the path of Hurricane Irma of the ECMWF (European Model, top) and the GFS Ensemble (American long-range Model, bottom). Irma is expected to cut back, but even now the models are not sure where exactly it will go. Whatever the case may be, the Bahamas and South Florida need to be preparing for the worst. Below I have also shared NOAA's main points regarding the devastation capable of Irma. 

Here's what to prepare for (Irma edition):

High winds: While flooding remains a threat, the strong wind capable of toppling buildings and tossing automobiles like matchbox cars is the real threat initially. Keep in mind, 180 mph is about how fast planes fly when landing or taking off. It is about three times that of highway speed, and this powerful wind is capable of moving/uprooting/toppling just about anything. Even if this storm weakens as it moves up the coast and veers toward the Carolinas, as some model runs would suggest, places like Asheville, NC could experience hurricane-force wind gusts exceeding 75 mph.

Flying debris: Piggybacking off of the high wind potential, debris will be carried by winds. These winds can be equated to those found in an EF-4 tornado, which tends to flatten anything in it's path. The straight-line winds in a hurricane do not have quite the devastating effect of those found in an EF-4 solely because the pressure differential is much greater in a tornado, because it is a smaller cyclone of rotation, but nevertheless the winds can flatten structures and fling debris through the air with ease.

Power outages: Cause and effect from the first two potential hazards leads us to the third hazard to prepare for, and that is widespread power-outages. While Irma will likely move quickly up the coast, the sheer strength of the storm will blow over power lines and possibly even ruin substations and power stations depending on their location... In this case, millions of people could lose power for an extended period of time while power companies work extra overtime in order to get everyone back on the grid. Make sure you have supplies prepared in the event of extended power outages.

Flooding: The final hazard I want to rehash is the possible of catastrophic flooding. This storm will not park itself over one location for a week as did Harvey, but the strength of the wind will cause massive storm surge along the coast, especially between Charleston and Wilmington should the current path come to fruition, and heavy rainfall further inland will flow down the narrow river basins overrunning banks potentially flooding downstream neighborhoods as we saw with Hurricane Matthew last year.

Hurricane Jose

Even just 24 hours ago, Jose was "supposed" to be a fish storm and curve back out to sea. Mother nature had a different idea in mind. The prevailing easterlies are proving to be an effective mode of transportation for Hurricane Jose, and now it is expected to take a more northwestward path. The danger now lies with the northern Caribbean islands which just got decimated by Hurricane Irma... and that danger is that another Hurricane will be making its visit in likely before the end of the weekend. There are reports that 90% of structures and automobiles have been destroyed on the Island of Barbuda, and now there is a possibility of another Hurricane, possibly Major Hurricane, wreaking additional havoc less than a week later. Hurricane shelters and other shelters alike were demolished from the record-breaking winds of Irma, and now another storm poses a threat to the Caribbean.

Essentials

Below is a list of items which would be necessary for survival should the above situations occur, those including flooding, widespread power outages, and wind damage.

1. Bottled Water
2. Canned Foods
3. Flashlight with extra batteries
4. External Phone Charger/Battery Pack
5. Some means of receiving updated information in the event of a power outage (i.e. phone, battery-powered weather radio, etc.)
6. Tent, sleeping bags, and other essentials for sleeping outdoors should residential structures become damaged to a point of endangering those residing in them.
7. Safe location away from the coast/coastal waterways

Not all of these may be possible, but now that NC and SC are both in a state of emergency, I highly recommend taking the necessary steps to prepare yourself and your loved ones for the worst, obviously praying and hoping for the best. The death toll has begun in Barbuda with already 6 people being proclaimed dead, and that number will only rise as conditions clear behind the storm ahead of Jose and damage can be assessed. Please do not take this storm for granted, as it is a life-threatening storm capable of catastrophic damage.

Evening Storms and Overnight Severe in NC

We have an interesting situation setting up with good potential for a severe outbreak in the Southeast, including North Carolina. A trough with a strong jet streak upstream is becoming negatively tilted. In layman's terms, that means that it is increasing in strength rapidly and gaining atmospheric potential to unwind in a severe way.

Here's the situation: Storms will be forming and rolling through around dinner time. These storms, for central North Carolina, will more likely be our normal thunderstorms than not. The main event will come in the wee hours of Thursday morning and last into the morning commute (3:00 a.m. until 7:00 a.m.), making anything severe that much more dangerous due to the lack of available light for observation. Soundings indicate the possibility for a Linear Convective System to establish itself prior to moving eastnortheastward across the state, with growing potential for isolated supercell formation and tornadoes.

|A Supercell Thunderstorm is one in which the main core involves a lower, rotating mass of clouds called a mesolow. This rotation allows for super strong updrafts capable of creating and maintaining hail stones larger than golf balls and in some cases larger than tennis balls, and if the conditions are right and the rotation persists, a tornado can form. There are many more factors involved in tornado formation which I will not go into at this point.|

Threats:

The imposing danger is split into 3 different parts.

1. Strong Winds: This not including tornadoes... Atmospheric sounding profiles would suggest that throughout the event, 850 and 700 mb wind speeds would produce non-insignificant damage if mixed down to the surface, and currently it looks as though with high equivalent potential temperature (theta-e) air will be mixed into the system by the Gulf with southerly winds ahead of the line. This high theta-e air mixed into the middle of the atmospheric profile will provide instability (even though the surface instability from surface heating will not due to the time of day), and mixing to the surface could occur, producing surface instability and atmospheric mixing. These winds, when mixed down, could blow at a rate of 50 or 60 mph, a speed capable of toppling trees and power lines.

2. Hail: The hail danger is fairly straight forward. If hail forms, it will likely cause damage. If it's large enough, it could cause window breakage and crop damage in addition to dents in the roofs and hoods of cars.

3. Tornadoes: Tornadoes can form in two of the aforemention situations... either in the isolated supercell thunderstorms, or in a piece of a multicell line that accelerates due to strong winds from aloft. One piece I did not mention about those strong winds in point 1, is that if they mix down they can aid the advancement of a piece of the line of t-storms ahead of the rest of the line. In this case, the northern portion of that advancing segment could wrap around and allow for tornadic formation. The other situation is within a supercell thunderstorm, where the rotation found in the mesocyclone (aforementioned "mesolow") extends down to the surface.

Keep all forms of social media and warning prepared for tonight, as these storms will be arriving while most everyone is asleep, increasing the danger which exists with already dangerous storms. I will be retweeting from @miscan5000 and sharing by miscan5000 on Facebook overnight to help keep updates coming. Have an awesome day everyone! Keep your eyes to the sky!

Subsequent "Winter is Coming" Accumulation Update for North Carolina

Updated information is necessary!

The band of expected highest accumulation has shifted to the northeast from earlier. Temperatures are a bit warmer aloft than expected a few days ago for this storm. The transition zone is setting up around the Triangle as it usually does with these types of systems. However, 

New Accumulation Expectations

Many respected meteorologists in the area have been seeing similar hints from the models. 

Mountains: 

Boone, Asheville, and other areas in the foothills and higher elevations can expect from 3-7"

Western Piedmont: 

Salisbury, Asheboro, Winston Salem, Greensboro, and up to Danville, VA can expect highest accumulations. Most of these areas can expect 6-10", and higher accumulations will be experienced depending on where heavier mesoscale snow bands set up. Some areas, if conditions are favorable throughout the night into the morning, could see over 12"

Eastern Piedmont: 

Durham, Chapel Hill, Hillsborough, up into Roxboro, Henderson, and down into Pittsboro and Siler City could also see greater accumulation of 6-10" with the same case concerning snow banding. 

Raleigh, Wake Forest, Louisburg, Rocky Mount, and up to Roanoke Rapids are expecting now lower totals of snowfall as there is still that warm air aloft. If dendrites form higher up in the atmosphere, then melt in that warm layer, it will not take much time to cool the atmosphere to freezing at this layer. When this happens we will make the transition to snow here. Snow totals though are backing off to 2-4" for now. We still need to see what happens with that warm layer before making another update on accumulation amounts. 

Sandhills / Upper Coastal Plains: 

Laurinburg, Fayetteville, and Goldsboro have the best chance of snow accumulation in the Sandhills which will start later than other areas once the temperature cools off. All snow is expected by daybreak, however most of the moisture will have precipitated by that point. I am forecasting up to 1-2" max in these areas.

Greenville, Oak City, Murfreesboro, and over to Elizabeth City will be on the transition zone or southeast of it. Most of the accumulation in these towns and cities will be that of sleet transitioning to rain/freezing rain. Snow that falls in these areas will begin closer to lunch and accumulations of less than 1" are expected.

Lower Coastal Plains: Most everywhere else in the quadrant east of I-95 and south of US-64 can expect mostly rain transitioning to a wintry mix late in the morning tomorrow. Very little if any snow accumulation is expected. 

Winter is Coming... But How Much? Where? When?

Happy New Year Everyone!

It is only fitting that the first post of the new year would be a snow storm, as these are arguably the most exciting for students and the most challenging for forecasters. This, in my humble opinion, is starting off 2017 correctly!

Now getting to the meat; this post is primarily going to be for North Carolina, however I will mention accumulation forecasts for other parts of the southeastern United States. In addition, there is still uncertainty among computer model members and meteorologists alike as to where the areas of heaviest precipitation will be and what types of precipitation will be experienced. I will try to sort some of that out for you all here. 

The sections below in order include a description of the main meteorological factors contributing to this situation, my forecast for precipitation accumulation and location, and the hazards and impact associated with the outcome (as well as the class cancellation forecast should it be necessary). While I understand many are only concerned with the forecast, I encourage all of you to read the why associated with this system. It is a very complicated system with many uncertainties and ultimately we as meteorologists will not know exactly what will happen until it happens with this storm. As Nate Johnson, meteorologist and Executive Producer at WRAL-TV put it today on the radio, "there's a lot of 'bust' potential with this storm". It's not easy to predict the future, but it's possible to prepare for what may happen.

Setup / Meteorological Factors

Model Forecast Temperatures Overnight Friday Night

Model Forecast Low Temperatures Sunday Morning

Cold Air: Cold air is being forced into the south by the Canadian high pressure system in conjunction with an upper-atmospheric ridge (area of high pressure higher up in the atmosphere), and is banking up against the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains as a result of the Coriolis Force, or the apparent right turning of objects and fluids in the northern hemisphere (and left turning in the Southern Hemisphere) as a result of the earth's spinning on it's axis. This cold air has another role: aiding in accumulation. The 4" soil temperatures in the Piedmont and Coastal Plains are much too warm at this point to be conducive to accumulating frozen precipitation, however cooling temperatures over the next few days will bring these temperatures to a more manageable temperature. On Monday, soil temperatures in the Triangle were around 50 degrees Fahrenheit. However, by late Friday night into early Saturday morning, cold air and some already fallen precipitation will assist the ground temperature to reach that desired (or dreaded) freezing point. 

Model Forecast Low Temperatures Monday Morning

Moisture: As this ridge has been building, an area of low pressure is being forced around it. This low pressure last weekend had not yet crossed onto the Continent and was still out over the Pacific Ocean. As this low pressure center progresses, it is expected to travel over the Gulf of Mexico, cross over Florida, and proceed northwest along the coastline while remaining at sea. The importance here is that winds flow counterclockwise around the low's center, meaning that as the center is located over the warmest water in the Gulf and the Gulf Stream, winds to the north will be flowing toward the continent carrying moisture-rich air parcels. 

Atmospheric Ascent / Lifting Mechanism: In order to receive precipitation from that moisture, some sort of lifting mechanism is needed to force those air parcels upward in the sky where they can cool and condense into liquid precipitation from water vapor. The setup we have for this weekend includes at least two lifting mechanisms: orographic, and atmospheric. The orographic lifting mechanism resides in the mountain range. As the wind blows toward the mountains, it has nowhere to go but up, and rises over the range allowing the moisture in the air to cool. Atmospheric lifting will occur as surface air is forced toward and over the "cold dome". That dome of cold air is created and maintained by continental surface winds originating from the north/northeast (in VA, NC, SC, and GA) continuing southward and turning into the Appalachian mountains.

Precipitation-Type / Timing / Accumulation

P-Type and Timing:

Precipitation Type Model Guidance through 7:00 a.m. EST Saturday

Precipitation Type Model Guidance through 1:00 p.m. EST Saturday

At this point it looks like the main swath of precipitation will run through the eastern Piedmont and western Coastal Plains of NC angled northeastward from Greenville, SC up through Norfolk, VA... essentially following the I-85 corridor. A gradient of accumulation will likely develop on either side of this corridor. Due to warmer temperatures at the onset of the precipitation, p-types will likely begin as rain in the afternoon across the board with the exception of the higher elevations to the west. After a couple hours, the precipitation will likely shift over to a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Temperatures will be cooling off very rapidly, and less than a couple hours later around dinner time or slightly after we will begin seeing the transition to snow. Snow will be the main precipitation type for the Coastal Plains and Piedmont for Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. Those living on the coast will likely experience a mix of sleet and snow due to slightly warmer temperatures through the duration of precipitation.


Wintry Accumulations:

Accumulations will likely not be as high as many of the shared pictures have shown, and to be completely honest there is still a decent chance of some areas to the northwest in NC and southeast in SC who will not see precipitation at all. That being said:

Deep South: Places including Northern Alabama and Mississippi could see a trace to some measurable accumulation around 0.5". There are also chances for a wintry mix in southern Mississippi and Central Alabama.

Southeast: Northeast Georgia could receive up to between 1-2", and areas in Northwest South Carolina could receive between 2-3".

East: The range I am forecasting now for Southwest to Northeast North Carolina is a main swath of between 3-5" with some areas possibly seeing 5-6" with a gradient up to the Northwestern NC foothills of 0.5-1", increasing again to into the higher elevations with between 2-3" in places like Boone, Grandfather Mountain, and Asheville. It is looking like the Virginia Beach area and Norfolk area will receive part of that main swath so probably 2-3" in areas up there.

Coastline: I want to do a special accumulation forecast for the coastline because it is likely that those living between Charleston and the Outer Banks (at this point at least) will receive some accumulating freezing rain. I am not sure how much, however some model representations approximate up to 0.5" of freezing rain accumulation in places of extended freezing precipitation. This will provide grounds for power outages (as I will mention in "Hazards").

Hazards

1. Slick Roads: Whenever we get wintry precipitation, the roads fail to remain clear of drivers, and in the case of snow drifts, pedestrians as well. At first, rain will aid in the road surfaces cooling, however after the temperature drops to below freezing, that layer of water will quickly become a layer of ice. Be mindful of how much time you spend on the road as it is unsafe for yourself and others.

2. Wind: While there should not be too many instances where the wind will blow rapidly, gusty conditions at times cannot be ruled out. In the cold and potentially freezing precipitation, this could spell power outages. Power outages in the cold could cause many health issues.

3. Biting Cold: Not only are we going to be below freezing for the majority of the precipitation event, but after the precipitation comes to a halt the temperature will drop even more quickly. The sky will clear on Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, and cold air advection (the movement of cold air from location to another, in this case from Canada down to NC) and radiative cooling, or the process of longwave electromagnetic radiation being emitted from the earth's crust and released into the atmosphere, will work in tandem to cool the temperature into the single digits. There is a possibility that we will wind up setting some new low temperature records, and possibly even a few lowest highs. The American weather model even has us getting down below 0 degrees F without including wind chill. It is going to be very, very cold.

4. Hypothermia/Frost Bite: When it gets this cold, it does not take long before your body begins to slow down and show signs of frost bite or hypothermia if you have been exposed to cold water. I have posted here the National Weather Service Windchill Chart. After some model analysis, we can expect wind chill values throughout Sunday into Monday to drop into the single digits with possible values below 0. When it gets this cold, a time of only 30 minutes is necessary before frost bite affects exposed pieces of the body. If your power goes out, be sure to have a supply of candles and blankets ready to keep your living spaces lit and warm.

5. Bursting Pipes: This is usually not a hazard for us in the Southeastern United States, however with an air mass as cold as this one is expected to be, make sure you have your faucets dripping at night.

Class Cancellation Forecast

Unfortunately, church will likely be cancelled on Sunday, however I would recommend having your quiet time even so.

I have a hard time believing that classes will resume for the Spring semester on Monday, January 9. Temperatures will be so cold that we will be experiencing a hard freeze during the middle of it, and anything that has a special opportunity to melt will freeze again on Saturday and Sunday Nights.

I believe that because of warming weather Tuesday will not be a complete snow day, but a half day.


That is all I have for you right now! Get your bread, milk, and be sure to fill up your cars with gas! I hope everyone has  a great couple of snow days and stays safe!

Major Hurricane Matthew

This has been quite an active season for the Atlantic basin, and the churning is not over yet. With the latest update from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Matthew is a Category 4 Major Hurricane with central pressure of 934 millibars and max sustained wind speeds of 145 mph. It is currently moving north at 7 mph and will be running into the western half of Haiti by daybreak. Below I've gone through the current setup and what it means for steering Matthew, a couple factors acting to weaken/strengthen Matthew, and what it means for Hispaniola/Caribbean and the Continental United States.

Meteorological Setup

There are a few atmospheric components working together right now aiding in the northward and further westward-tracking of Hurricane Matthew:

1. Bermuda High: The first component is the Bermuda high. This is a persisting high pressure system in atmosphere over the Western Atlantic Ocean. A high pressure system consists of a center acting as a hilltop of air with winds flowing clockwise around it.

2. Jet Stream: The Jet Stream is essentially acts as an imaginary wall between the tropical air mass and the polar air mass and works to transport various air masses around the globe.

3. Tropical Continental Low: This low pressure anomaly is partially created by the differing air masses between the Gulf of Mexico and the North American Continent, and partially due to the Bermuda High.

Now, how do all these work together to direct and strength the storm? With the current setup, the jet stream is currently flattened out rather than dipping deep into the continent and shooting northward again. Over the next few days, the Jet stream is going to dip in the belly of the continent and rise back toward the New England States. This shift of the jet stream will allow the Bermuda High to strengthen and a ridge to build up over the continent, ultimately resulting in stronger clockwise wind flow, but also causing a larger swath of that clockwise flow. As the ridge (or isolated high pressure) grows, the window of opportunity for Hurricane Matthew to move out to sea diminishes and a northnorthwesterly wind component is acting to steer Matthew toward the coast. In addition, there is clockwise flow from the High on the eastern side of the storm with counterclockwise flow from the Continental Low on the western side. This wind shear, or change in wind speed and direction with a change in distance, acts to "spin the top" and aids in the continued shaping of the storm rather than tearing it apart.

This is the storm surge forecast shared by Meteorologist Michael Lowry

Geologic/Hydrologic Factors

There are two opportunities geologically for Matthew to weaken prior to making any landfall in the Continental United States, both of which are higher levels of elevation. Both the Islands of Haiti and Cuba have mountains higher than 4,000 feet which will both act to slow some of the momentum of those 145 mph winds. This has other implications when forecasting for potential devastation,

There are also two factors hydrologically we need to be concerned with in the immediate future for Hispaniola and the Caribbean. The first of these is the rainfall in the mountains both in Haiti and Cuba. Increased rainfall in higher elevations increases the risk for devastating mudslides and flash flooding for those living there. These mudslides and floods can easily take trees, bridges, roads, and houses with them flowing downhill. The second of these is the warmth in the Caribbean Sea right now. Ocean temperatures of around 80 degrees Fahrenheit are normally a requirement for Tropical Cyclone formation and development, however the water temperature right now is around 85 degrees Fahrenheit with 80 degree water ; plenty warm enough for increasing the strength of Hurricane Matthew after losing momentum to the mountains.

Caribbean Concerns

The nations of Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas are all under Hurricane warnings right now. Coastal regions of western Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern half of the Bahamas can expect 10-15' storm surge, heavy rains, and strong sustained winds for the next couple of days as Matthew crawls northward at 7 mph. Devastating flash flooding as well as wind damage to structures is expected in the Caribbean over the next 3-4 days.

*Para personas en esta region, es muy importante para oír a su líderes y toma acción para ahorrar sus familias si en una posición de gran pelígro.*

United States Concerns

This map depicts rainfall in the month of September different from the average.

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty as to whether there will be a landfalling location or not, however it is certain that the coastline from south Florida through the Carolinas will experience at least Tropical Storm force winds and decent rainfall at best. There is an increasing westward trend of model runs as we get closer to the potential impact of Hurricane Matthew, which means there is increasing danger for the coastline. We have already received way above average rainfall in Central and Eastern North Carolina, and one model is numerically representing over 11" of rainfall in areas along the South Carolina coast and over 8" in Wilmington. These are not official forecasts. These are only model representations. There is still plenty of time for these model representations to adjust before Matthew gets closer to the Continent. It is still imperative that we prepare for the worst, in case a landfall is experienced in the next week.

Hurricane Preparedness Plan

If you live along the coast, especially in the outer banks or other barrier islands, do NOT try to ride out this storm. Pay attention to Emergency Management and meteorologists to aid in making decisions to keep you and your family safe. If property is going to be destroyed by this storm, I hate to say it, but there is nothing you can do about it by staying there except putting your life on the line unnecessarily.

If Matthew continues to trend more westward, there is a good chance the Florida coast could lie in a hurricane warning, in which case FEMA and Emergenc
y Management would begin advising to board up housing and/or initiate evacuation plans.

For those along the Outer Banks and other barrier islands between Florida and the Carolinas, again, pay close attention to instruction from local Emergency Management, Meteorologists, and government officials to protect yourselves and your families.

Tropical Storm Hermine

Though the Hurricane season has been rather quiet up until a week ago, the tropics are ramping up very quickly! We had Hurricane Gaston, Tropical Depression 8, and Tropical Depression 9 as well as another Easterly wave with high potential for forming into a tropical system.

Tropical Depression 8 strengthened in the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall last night in the panhandle as Hurricane Hermine.

The biggest threat for TS Hermine is the rainfall. The National Weather Service has done a fantastic job putting together these area forecasts for estimated rainfall totals. My biggest concern is that people will think "It's not much" and try to go out in it. STAY HOME. Ride out the storm, and unless you have a boat and are rescuing people in flood waters, just wait until the water recedes. There is no point risking your life to go hang out at the local sports bar if it's still open. If you cannot see the roadway clearly, or you see water flowing over the road, TURN AROUND.

Tropical Storm Hermine has had a history of producing a few tornadoes in the eye wall as well, so please stay tuned to your local weather station via TV or battery-powered weather radio should the power go out. While the main threat is water, wind advisories have still been issued for much of the southern sandhills as winds will remain at tropical storm force: sustained at 15-25 mph with gusts of 35-45 mph. There will likely be some power outages as a result of the combination of wind and rain.

Take-Aways:

1. Avoid flood waters; it would be best to stay off the road for the next two days.
2. Make sure to buy bottled water in the event of flooding.

In the event of a power outage:
3. Have available a battery-powered radio to stay tuned to your local weather stations to stay updated.
4. Have phones, computers, and external batteries charged and ready to go.
5. Prepare candles for light

Stay safe everyone!

First Hurricane of the Season. Name....Bonnie?

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season may be starting off early with what could become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm within the next couple of days. Should it become a named storm, though, it would be given the name Bonnie. Why start with a "B" name? The National Hurricane Center actually isn't. Back in January, a cluster of storms similar to this one organized around a low in the Caribbean, and with max sustained wins of 85 mph was considered a Sub-Tropical Storm and named "Alex". Now, almost 5 months later, the second storm of the year is forming. According to Dr. Richard Pasch of the National Hurricane Center, "Alex" was the first hurricane to form in January since 1938 and was named "Hurricane One". That's 78 years since the last January Hurricane!

Set-up

This photo was taken from the National Hurricane Center's
official site http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

GIF from 14Z 05272016 through 00Z 05302016

Nothing has formed yet except for a cluster of showers around a Low pressure center, however the increasing organization of the cluster in addition to forecast models pointing to the development and landfall of a tropical or sub-tropical system, there is a very good chance that this Memorial Day weekend could be more of a wash-out than many would hope. Currently Marine forecasters are calling for a 90% chance of formation into a tropical system within the next 48 hours. I have saved a GIF from the College of DuPage's Next Generation Weather Lab with the hi-res convective precipitation forecast for the next 60 hours. This GIF is essentially a time-lapse of what could happen between breakfast time today and dinner time on Sunday. The gist of this setup is that South Carolina and Western North Carolina as well as the NC Coast will receive the heaviest precipitation with widespread showers across NC and VA up through the Mid-Atlantic States. There is still a lot... up in the air... about what will actually happen in the way of wind damages and within isolated cells. If this cluster of convective cells organizes it is very possible that coastal regions could experience some mild storm surge in addition to heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds. 

Hazards

The main hazards at this point are wind and rain. Heavy rains could produce flooding and flash flooding, and if the heaviest precipitation falls in Central SC, an already damaged, rebuilding area could receive more damaging flooding. The wind speeds, depending on how the system organizes, could range anywhere from 40 mph to 80 mph before making landfall, though the current meteorological situation looks promising for winds in the upper half of that range. 

Stay up-to-date from your local TV stations! I will be posting from Facebook and Twitter throughout the weekend via re-tweets and shares. 

I would like to take this last statement I make to thank the men and women who have served in our country's military. It is because of them that we continue to enjoy the freedoms we consider to be human rights. They do not get as much credit, respect, or recognition as they deserve. Thank a military service person this weekend especially, and in honor of Memorial Day, if one of your family members has served and fallen in the line of duty, I share my condolences with you and your family, but equally important I share my utmost respect and gratitude for your family member, whoever it may have been in whatever event, thank you.